Ahead of the bank
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most-likely value above cash at this horizon
Model Portfolio Explorer
Twenty-five years of modelled performance across Tōtara's seven policy models. Choose a model to see how it is built, how it has behaved, and what it could become.
Select a model Lower risk Higher risk
$
Balanced
55% growth / 45% income · rebalanced quarterly
Return p.a.
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Volatility p.a.
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Return per unit risk
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Worst drawdown
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Best month
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Worst month
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55% growth assets45% income assets
Asset allocation
Nine underlying sleeves · global infrastructure fully hedged, emerging markets unhedged
Growth of $10,000
If invested at the start of the window, before fees and tax
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Drawdown
Fall from the previous high, month by month
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What could $10,000 become?
An illustrative range for the Balanced model against leaving it in the bank — not a forecast
Range of outcomes (middle 50% & 80%)
Most likely path
Left in the bank (cash)
Lower outcome
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Around
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Higher outcome
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Chance of a loss
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share of historical windows of this length that ended below where they startedWorst 12 months
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largest fall over any year in the recordHow to read this. The shaded bands show where the value is likely to land — the darker band captures the middle 50% of outcomes, the lighter the middle 80% — built from this model's own modelled history (its average return and how much it bounces around). The dashed line is the same money left in the bank at cash rates. This is an illustration, not a forecast or a guarantee; real returns will differ, more so over shorter periods.
About this data ▾
Figures are modelled, not actual client returns. Each model is generated by holding the nine underlying asset-class sleeves at Tōtara's policy weights, drifting them with the market and rebalancing quarterly, over a common history running from February 2001 (set by the inception of the S&P/NZX 50 Gross index, the shortest sleeve). The emerging markets sleeve (MSCI Emerging Markets net, unhedged into NZD) has history from January 2001, so it sits inside that window without shortening it. Returns are monthly total returns in New Zealand dollars, shown before fees, costs and tax. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance.
The projection is a statistical illustration, not a forecast. It grows the starting amount forward using each model's historical average return and volatility under a lognormal model, and compares it with cash compounding at its historical rate over the same window (4.0% p.a.). It assumes those long-run characteristics persist, which they may not; it ignores fees, tax and changes in interest rates; and shorter horizons carry far wider uncertainty than the bands can fully convey.
Some sleeves carry construction caveats: the NZD-hedged global bond and hedged global infrastructure sleeves are built by currency conversion or synthetic hedge and cannot be validated against a live hedged benchmark; NZ bonds before 2011 use a government-only index with no corporate-credit behaviour (including through 2008); and global equity before 1998 reflects developed markets only. Currency policy: developed-market global equity is 50% hedged / 50% unhedged; global infrastructure is 100% hedged to NZD; emerging markets equity is held unhedged. Because infrastructure is now fully hedged, each model's entire infrastructure allocation rests on the synthetic hedged sleeve, whose hedging cost is estimated rather than observed.
Sources: S&P/NZX, S&P/ASX, Bloomberg and MSCI indices, converted to NZD where required. Tōtara Wealth Management — for adviser use with clients. This tool is for illustration and does not constitute personalised financial advice.