The world economy is still growing, which is a generally positive background for risk assets, but investment outcomes have become overdependent on ongoing gains from U.S. equities. The most likely outlook is ongoing global expansion, though trade wars, monetary policy mistakes, problems in some emerging markets, and geopolitical shocks are all real risks to monitor...

Markets in recent weeks have been upset by the potential threat to world economic activity from trade frictions between the United States and other major countries and trading blocs. There have been other episodes of concern over global growth since the current post-crisis global recovery set in...

While the long post-global financial crisis global expansion is still intact and is providing fundamental economic support for risk assets, it is increasingly being challenged by downside risks, with trade wars and emerging-markets economies the latest worries...

The world economic expansion is still trucking along, although it has become a bit more dependent than previously on the U.S. economy, and should support some further equity gains, although against a background of rising political risks—especially the risk of trade wars...

World economic growth is still supportive for global equities, and fund managers currently expect equities to make further gains. But the outlook, particularly this late in a sustained global business cycle, is becoming more vulnerable to various risks, notably higher bond yields (especially in the U.S.) and various geopolitical risks...