Local and international markets have marked time in recent weeks as investors wait to see how the coronavirus outbreak will develop and what its ultimate impact will be. On the plus side, with supportive economic policies that have been put in place and anti-COVID-19 measures like lockdowns and distancing, it is plausible that we are at or near the low point for the global economic cycle.

While forecasters are typically running with a range of scenarios, most agree that their baseline or best-guess scenario is for a serious setback to world trade and gross domestic product this year, followed by a recovery next year. The shape and speed of the recovery remains very uncertain, however, with fund managers inclined to believe it may be a more gradual affair rather than a rapid return to normality.

We are seeing a major correction occurring in all global equity markets as investors try to assess the impact of the coronavirus on corporate profits. The Dow Jones is now down over 12% from the peak it reached on the 12 February as near panic grips many markets…

Coronavirus has dominated discussion of the immediate economic outlook. At the moment, the consensus’ view (as expressed by, among others, both Australia's and New Zealand’s central banks) is a short, limited impact on local and global economic activity. But nobody can be sure…