Besides the local outbreak in Auckland, the daily number of global new cases continues to increase. At the moment, the consensus view among forecasters remains that 2021 will see a recovery in both the global and domestic economies, which could see the sectors previously most affected by COVID-19 lockdowns regain some lost ground, but risks remain tilted to the downside. Portfolio protection through extensive diversification and more defensive sectoral choices will have to remain a priority.
After an initial strong recovery from the coronavirus sell-off, equities have made only modest progress in recent weeks, as investors have gone into wait-and-see mode…
It is still not clear how the global economy will play out. There are signs that the worst has passed, and that fiscal and monetary policy almost everywhere is strongly supportive.. However, even if COVID-19 is contained--a big if given recent experience in the U.S. and elsewhere--further progress is more likely to be gradual and possibly interrupted by new outbreaks, rather than a quick V-shaped recovery.
Markets have remained choppy as investors waver between optimism about eventual recovery and renewed concerns about the final cost of the COVID-19 outbreak, as well as impending uncertainties…
Although uncertainty remains high, the best view is that the New Zealand economy will recover from the September quarter onwards...
Local and international markets have marked time in recent weeks as investors wait to see how the coronavirus outbreak will develop and what its ultimate impact will be. On the plus side, with supportive economic policies that have been put in place and anti-COVID-19 measures like lockdowns and distancing, it is plausible that we are at or near the low point for the global economic cycle.
While equity markets have generally recovered from their coronavirus-affected lows in late March, the prognosis for the world economy remains uncertain...
While forecasters are typically running with a range of scenarios, most agree that their baseline or best-guess scenario is for a serious setback to world trade and gross domestic product this year, followed by a recovery next year. The shape and speed of the recovery remains very uncertain, however, with fund managers inclined to believe it may be a more gradual affair rather than a rapid return to normality.