Looking ahead, the central scenario is ongoing global growth at a modestly slower rate, though with significant potential for trade disruptions (US-China, Brexit) and for the policy errors or other accidents that can derail already mature business cycles....

Looking ahead, although the outlook for global growth has been marked down a bit, 2019 still looks like another year of global economic expansion. But it could easily be derailed, particularly by any acrimonious trade wars between China and the US or by other risks such as credit market disruptions. The outlook at the moment is consequently hard to call, with some chance of smooth sailing but also a good chance of markets hitting a sharp reef....

There has also been a slew of other worries, including slower eurozone growth and Brexit. Looking ahead, while all the recent focus has been on downside risks, a broader perspective should allow for the possibility that the long post-GFC economic recovery is still intact, although there is the potential for ill-advised political brinkmanship to derail the cycle....

Looking ahead, the global economy looks like continuing its already long post-GFC expansion into 2019, which should be supportive for growth assets, but equities remain overdependent on the performance of American shares and the American economy, and there are risks (notably around trade wars and potential mistakes from accidentally overtightening monetary policy) which could derail the outlook...

World equities sold off in October, based on a range of concerns. The two most important were the potential impacts of higher bond yields, and the prospect of the U.S. or global business cycles running out of momentum...

The world economy is still growing, which is a generally positive background for risk assets, but investment outcomes have become overdependent on ongoing gains from U.S. equities. The most likely outlook is ongoing global expansion, though trade wars, monetary policy mistakes, problems in some emerging markets, and geopolitical shocks are all real risks to monitor...

Markets in recent weeks have been upset by the potential threat to world economic activity from trade frictions between the United States and other major countries and trading blocs. There have been other episodes of concern over global growth since the current post-crisis global recovery set in...

While the long post-global financial crisis global expansion is still intact and is providing fundamental economic support for risk assets, it is increasingly being challenged by downside risks, with trade wars and emerging-markets economies the latest worries...

The world economic expansion is still trucking along, although it has become a bit more dependent than previously on the U.S. economy, and should support some further equity gains, although against a background of rising political risks—especially the risk of trade wars...

World economic growth is still supportive for global equities, and fund managers currently expect equities to make further gains. But the outlook, particularly this late in a sustained global business cycle, is becoming more vulnerable to various risks, notably higher bond yields (especially in the U.S.) and various geopolitical risks...

World equity and bond markets fell in recent weeks, and although equities have recovered somewhat since, the episode is a reminder that expensive equity, bond, and bond-proxy prices are at risk from the end of ultra-low cash and bond yields...

The outlook for the world economy continues to strengthen, particularly in the formerly moribund eurozone, and it provides greater support for growth-oriented assets. But valuations remain expensive across all asset classes...

World equity markets have continued to recover from their North Korea related setback in August/September. Income-oriented asset classes (property, infrastructure) have lagged as the prospect of higher bond yields draws nearer.

World financial markets have become less concerned about North Korean risk. Equities have largely recovered from previous setbacks, and “safe haven” buying of government bonds has eased back.

World equity markets — despite a setback at the outbreak of acute tensions over North Korea — have continued to make progress as the world economy continues to improve...

Two trends are setting the agenda for asset prices. One is the ongoing global economic expansion: Recent data suggest the outlook has improved a bit further, and equities are likely to continue to benefit. The other, however, is the prospect of less supportive monetary policy...